Sunday, February 23, 2014

Jack Kelly today 2/23/14

I posted the below on the comment section of today's (actually yesterday's online) Jack Kelly column "Jack Kelly: The end is nigh, with Obamacare the last straw (Obamacare may tank the economy within weeks)" in the PG. Last I looked, it was "awaiting moderation". Maybe it will appear, maybe it shan't. I thought I would put it here anyway.

It is funny to see Jack Kelly play economist. I personally am constantly attacked if I try to introduce the least amount of economic ideas into the discussions here, yet I see none of the conservatives who attack me here, attacking Mr Kelly. I guess IOKIYAC.

Kelly makes this assertion un-sourced "Enrollments fell 29 percent in January from December, with the pace of signups slowing as the month wore on." Why should we trust that statement? Kelly misidentified Larry Kocot as "of the Brookings Institution" when in fact he is a visiting fellow. In fact Mr Kocot was a senior adviser on Medicare in the bush Health & Human Services department. There is valid reason to think he has a political agenda.

Jack Kelly says about Grady Means "Mr. Means isn’t a doomsayer who’s predicted 11 of the last two recessions. He isn’t trying to sell gold, silver or freeze-dried food." I don't exactly see anything that contradicts that statement on the web, although Mr Means himself wrote essentially this same column right before the Presidential election in 2012. . Breitbart (the pillar of journalistic integrity) has since picked up Mr Means predictions. And actually the most amusing thing is that after Mr Kelly exonerates Mr Means, he references two quotes from "Trends Research Institute founder Gerald Celente". There are many who would say that Gerald Celente predicted 11 of the last two recessions, ABC News and future editor of the New York Times Magazine Hugo Lindgren among them. In fact, Mr Lindgren is credited with coining the term "doomsday porn" to describe Mr Celente (among others).

You know, if Jack Kelly turns out to be right, then he (or Grady Means) will have pulled off the greatest prediction in history of predictions (well, maybe second to Dr Michael Burry, if Michael Lewis is to be believed). But I, for one, am not going to run off to rural Montana and invest in shotgun shells and freeze dried food.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Jack Kelly in the new year...Jack Kelly Today

On the advice of Pod Camp, I will say nothing of my absence on this blog. I will say tax season is in full swing, but I am still commenting furiously on the PG, when I see something comment worthy. And today I decided to go "old school", and revive my blog posts of my PG comments on Jack Kelly columns. So....

So without further ado .... Today Jack Kelly thinks he has trapped Democrats in their support of job loss caused by "Obamacare", as detailed by the CBO; "Spinning the CBO: The latest analysis further discredits Obamacare". I immediately found a couple of economists who disagree.

This would be exciting if it were any kind of new and significant find. However it is an issue that economists have already acknowledged, but say will not bring about the apocalypse. In general, they say, the positive effects of the ACA (increasing access to healthcare for the poor, allowing some with multiple jobs to drop one job because they would have independent access to health care) outweighs the negative effects of not taking on additional income because of drops in *all* subsidies or aid to the poor.

And by the way, the poor almost never have the option, on any given day, or either accepting a significant raise or taking a better job. Any conservative who says the poor would rather stay lazy that accept a high paying job because they will lose the food stamps, section 8, Obamacare and Obamaphone is doing no more than repeating the latest Fox News "let's whip up our base into a frenzy". The way the "undeserving, lazy" poor can increase their income is if the take a second job, work 60-70 hours a week.

So as I say, this issue has already been addressed by economists who have already studied the issue.®ion=Body&_r=0

We should understand Kelly's final quote about Democratic spin is in fact furious spin itself, entirely distorting the findings of the CBO.