What are the odds that we will go to war with Iran soon? Myself, I put them at no better than 3 in 10, although those odds could change quickly if Iran decides to do something we see as provocative.
Why am I even talking about this? It's not like it's September 12th, 2001. But apparently the media is talking about the possibility, according to Glenn Greenwald.
Greenwald has spent (mostly) his last few columns talking about things associated with Iran. Apparently there is a group "Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK)" that is opposed to the current regime in Iran and has been giving money to US politicians such as Rudy Giuliani and Howard Dean. Only hitch, the State department has designated them as a terrorist organization. Apparently this is a complicated situation (with echos of Achmed Chalabi?) that makes the US politicians involved look like dupes.
But Greenwald wonders if we all are. Forget having learned lessons from Vietnam, have we forgotten we were lied to about Iraq? I guess it's OK, it's the Obama administration.
The bigger worry for me is what Israel might do. I haven't been paying a whole lot of attention to Israel recently, but I wonder if the the current conservative government might need a distraction from the hash they are making of their relations with the Palestinians. The current assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists (which Greenwald has mentioned) seem like something that either this MEK group or the Israelis might do, as opposed to our doing that. I say that not because we wouldn't, but rather because Israel and/or this MEK know the area and are likely more competent than we are.
Could Israel end up dragging us into a war with Iran? Iran has some missiles, which I am about 95% sure can not reach us, or even much of Europe. But I'll bet they could reach Israel easy. If Israel bombs what they think is an Iranian nuclear development site, the Iranians could retaliate (possibly with chemical weapons). That, or Israel's nuclear retaliation, could drag us in.